10-28-2026 Gut Feelings, 1981, and Why You Can't Time the Market

Tag was a great sport about the yoga class. Sterling made it halfway.

Last Sunday I took a yoga class that raised funds to help train folks in equine therapy through a nonprofit called Ascend Equine, and I brought Tag and Sterling. Afterwards, my friend Sally, who taught the class, and I went on our ladies' hike at Staunton.

Saturday was trunk or treat at Elk Creek, and it was fun and slushy. Tag and I did laps while Sterling collected what felt like 100 pounds of candy. He's going to double that this weekend, based on the number of trick-or-treat plans we have.

Last week I also interviewed a candidate for my admin job, and it wasn't a good fit personality-wise. It also didn't seem like she understood some of the questions. In the room, I didn't know I didn't want to hire her. The gut feeling showed up afterwards.

I follow my gut a lot, and my head gets in the way. When I really tune into my body and my feelings, which is rather new for me, I end up pointed in the right direction more often than when I think too hard. The problem? I am very good at convincing myself to go against my intuition. I could talk myself out of a free taco. So I'm practicing the opposite. I have another interview this week that I'm really excited about. Fingers crossed.

And set your clocks back this weekend. Enjoy that extra hour of sleep.

This Week in Real Estate: On The Ground This Week

The conference I went to last week started with a market update, and man, was it bleak.

According to the presenter, we're likely in this economic environment for the foreseeable future, rates might stay high, and the usual spring pickup might not happen. The presenter also said unemployment is artificially low and consumer sentiment hasn't been this low since 1981, not even during the Great Recession.

So look at 1981. Mortgage rates peaked at 18.63% that October, per Freddie Mac, inflation was terrible, unemployment was climbing, and we were in a recession. Today we aren't technically in a recession, and mortgage rates are north of 7%, well under half of that peak. Our mood looks like 1981. Our reality looks a lot better.

Plenty of people are going through hard times right now, and plenty aren't. I think it's on all of us to appreciate what we have and help those less fortunate, and I'm talking to myself here too. I forget how grateful I should be for the air in my lungs, legs that work and don't hurt, arms that hug my kids, ears that let me listen to music and books, and a job that lets me help people. Even on the bad days there's something small to be grateful for, and I'm clinging to those if the seas get rough.

My advice as a realtor in Evergreen, whether the forecast is bleak or bright: don't try to time the market. Buy or sell when it's right for you and your family. Trying to time it is when people get themselves into trouble. That goes for anyone downsizing or moving to Colorado, too.

I'm living it, by the way. I have two listings coming this spring that I know about for sure, and we already took the photos. They just aren't ready to list now.

The Market: Evergreen, Conifer & Pine Market Snapshot

Homes that never cut their price sold in a median of 5.5 days this week. Homes that did took 107.

By "cut," I mean the original list price was higher than the final one. Last week that split was 15 days versus 94, so the quick sales got quicker and the slow ones got slower. Seven of this week's 13 closings cut their price, compared with 15 of 25 last week. If you plan to sell a home in Evergreen or Conifer, that gap is the best case I know for pricing it right on day one.

The median sold price was $770,096, down from $977,500 last week. Evergreen's median was $815,000 (last week $1,182,775), Conifer's was $735,000 (last week $900,000), and the one Pine sale closed at $675,000. Four homes sold for more than $2 million last week, all in Evergreen. None did this week.

The typical home closed at 98.1% of its final list price, down from 99.0%, and at 93.8% of its original list price, down from 94.7%. On a $770,000 home, 98.1% works out to about $14,600 off the list price.

Thirteen closings is a small sample, so think of this as one week's weather report for Colorado mountain homes. Seven closed in Evergreen, five in Conifer, and one in Pine, compared with 26 last week (21 in Evergreen, 5 in Conifer, none in Pine).